Few companies define an era the way NVIDIA does right now. For years, it has been the heartbeat of the AI revolution: the company everyone depends on but few can truly compete with. Yet, as the dust settles around its massive new partnership with OpenAI and growing tensions with China, NVIDIA stands at a fascinating crossroads: it’s both the strongest and most vulnerable player in the game.

The OpenAI Bet: A $100 Billion Circle of Trust

NVIDIA recently announced a $100 billion strategic partnership with OpenAI to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA-powered AI infrastructure.¹ The deal is structured as a circular investment. OpenAI will be one of NVIDIA’s largest customers, buying its systems and chips to build data centers.

It’s a bold move. NVIDIA isn’t just selling chips; it’s embedding itself into the backbone of the world’s most influential AI ecosystem. But that level of integration also brings scrutiny. A partnership this large blurs the line between supplier and partner, raising inevitable antitrust and regulatory questions about fairness and market dominance.²

AMD and OpenAI: A Hint of Competition

OpenAI isn’t putting all its eggs in one GPU basket. It has also signed a multi-year deal with AMD for AI chips — specifically, AMD’s MI450 series — with plans to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD compute over time.³ The agreement even includes an option for OpenAI to take up to 10% ownership in AMD if certain milestones are hit.³

This signals something important: even the biggest AI players are wary of depending too much on NVIDIA. It’s a quiet but powerful vote for competition, and a reminder that dominance always attracts challengers.

China: The Silent Earthquake

While these deals capture headlines, NVIDIA is facing a much bigger storm from across the Pacific. China’s regulators have reportedly ordered major tech firms, including ByteDance and Alibaba, to cancel tests and purchases of NVIDIA’s AI chips, including models specifically designed to comply with export restrictions.^4,5

This is a serious hit. China accounted for roughly 13% of NVIDIA’s revenue in 2024,⁶ and even though the company has tried to engineer “workaround” chips like the H20 to meet export rules,⁷ recent bans appear to close off even those paths.

Losing access to China isn’t just about revenue; it’s about momentum. Every month that China invests in developing its own AI chip ecosystem (with companies like Huawei and Cambricon) is a month closer to an eventual competitor. It may take five to ten years, but the trajectory is clear.

NVIDIA’s Strengths Still Run Deep

Despite these headwinds, NVIDIA’s moat remains enormous. It leads the world in AI hardware, software integration, and ecosystem dominance. Most large AI models are optimized for NVIDIA’s stack, and the “platform lock-in” effect makes it difficult for developers to migrate elsewhere.

Financially, NVIDIA can afford to take big bets. It has the balance sheet and brand strength to weather short-term turbulence while investing in the next wave of AI infrastructure.

And its partnership with OpenAI, despite the risks, ensures long-term demand. NVIDIA is effectively pre-selling its future chips to one of the most influential AI players in the world.

Where Things Could Go: Three Possible Futures

If we look ahead to 2030, NVIDIA’s story could play out in a few broad ways:

• Base Case: NVIDIA maintains leadership but slows its growth as China stays closed off. OpenAI and other partners keep demand steady.
• Bull Case: NVIDIA becomes the de facto global AI infrastructure provider, dominating next-generation systems and setting new performance standards.
• Bear Case: Rivals like AMD gain ground, China’s domestic chips catch up, and regulators push back on NVIDIA’s dominance, shrinking its market share.

Realistically, NVIDIA is likely to land somewhere near the base case. The company will stay powerful, but not invincible.

What NVIDIA Should Do Next

If I were in NVIDIA’s shoes, I’d double down on a few things:

• Diversify beyond China: Expand in Europe, the Middle East, and government/defense sectors.
• Lean into software: Build more proprietary tools and frameworks that make switching costs higher.
• Proactive regulation management: Stay transparent with regulators before the headlines hit.
• Strategic flexibility: Make the OpenAI investment milestone-based to manage capital exposure.

My Take

NVIDIA’s current moment is both thrilling and precarious. The OpenAI partnership is bold and visionary, the kind of move that could define the next decade of technology. But it also concentrates risk in ways that are hard to ignore.

If AI demand keeps exploding, NVIDIA wins big. If regulation, geopolitics, or competition slow it down, it still wins, just not as fast.

For now, I’d say NVIDIA’s path looks more like steady dominance with growing turbulence than unstoppable growth. The company remains the king of AI chips, but the kingdom it rules is getting more complicated every day.

References

1. NVIDIA Newsroom – OpenAI and NVIDIA announce strategic partnership to deploy 10 GW of NVIDIA systems (Sept 2025)
2. Financial Times – NVIDIA’s $100 billion bet on ‘gigantic AI factories’ to power ChatGPT (Sept 2025)
3. Reuters – AMD signs AI chip-supply deal with OpenAI, gives it option to take 10% stake (Oct 6 2025)
4. Reuters – China tells tech firms to stop buying NVIDIA’s AI chips, FT reports (Sept 17 2025)
5. Reuters – NVIDIA’s new RTX 6000D chip finds little favour with major Chinese firms (Sept 16 2025)
6. Investopedia – China bans top tech firms from buying NVIDIA chips, report says (Sept 2025)
7. Reuters – China cautions tech firms over NVIDIA H20 AI chip purchases (Aug 12 2025)